I've been finished writing the book for about a year.
Minor edits here and there, and my deadline was in June.
Finally, in September, I'm getting some real reviews from people who got previews.
And feedback is better than I expected.
“Very easy to read, finished it in a weekend. The content is illuminating, the lack of accountability in the field is infuriating.”
“I was extremely skeptical about the claims made by the author. But he left me with no questions about his main points.”
“Takes on the field's experts with no restraint.”
Just a few I've received this week.
Of course, you know *my* feelings on the topic: the way experts analyze polls is broken, and needs fixed. Unscientific standards do not deserve to continue to exist.
But without the book (and the perceived authority that unfortunately determines whether or not people care about what you have to say) it is very easy to dismiss someone who says “the experts” don't know what they're talking about.
Even when I show it, even when I prove it, the cognitive dissonance is too strong.
But for whatever reason, you put it in a book, people start to listen.
It *seems* like people don't want to believe (or can't) that experts would be wrong about something so simple:
Polls aren't predictions, projections, and they don't provide win probability.
So I make it clear:
Being smart doesn't preclude you from being wrong.
Bonus nerd content.
I disprove Nate Silver’s "polls outside margin of error" calculation, demonstrating he doesn't understand the difference between polls and elections....and that he's incapable of properly reading a very simple formula.
In case anyone is interested in that.
The book is mostly about explaining how polls *should* be understood, compared to how they're currently misunderstood.
I offer a lot of tools, concepts, and value for anyone who wants to get there, and several more for experts for how they can improve the field.
But I don't “play nice” with the experts - because they don't deserve it. I take them on directly. This direct approach, while it will rub some people the wrong way, is far more effective than quietly pointing out how and why they're wrong. That approach is very easy to ignore.
The fact that most people in the field don't know who Nick Panagakis is demonstrates that.
If you haven't already, please pre-order my book today! Just 100 sales will push me up the rankings and give me something to brag about in my interviews this week
Preorder here: https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/1032483024
Or direct from the publisher
Thank you!