I do bracket math every year - and for the first time, you can have it too. For free! (But subscribe and/or follow me on social medias, please)
The longest I’ve ever had a perfect bracket was into the Sweet 16 (2018). The commonly cited statistic for the odds of filling out a perfect bracket (1 in 9 quintillion) is based on the assumption that all games are coinflips: not true!
A well-informed fan can easily get those numbers down to 1 in a few billion. No problem.
But it’s not really a perfect bracket you’re after - it’s the best bracket. Whether with friends, coworkers, family, or a competition - I can help.
The two most important pieces of data:
How many people are in your bracket pool (that means you have to read my charts)
Which teams are the most valuable to pick (that’s where I come in)
A quick math lesson: if you enter a bracket pool with 50 people, you should have about a 2% chance to win: 1/50.
Anything you can do to improve your chances above 2% is a “good bracket.”
Depending on the skill (and strategy) of your competition I can get that 2% up to around 10%. Which means you’ll probably still lose. Numbers are real downers. But if you want to give yourself the best chance to win, you’re after a unique bracket that isn’t packed with unlikely events.
For people who just want help filling out their brackets without the commentary, scroll to the bottom section with the “summary” heading.
The summary section contains recommended number of “upset” picks for your bracket pool.
For the nerds, here’s a region-by-region breakdown:
East Region, Round 1
UConn is the clear favorite in this region, but I don’t think they’re as big of a favorite as the betting markets do (more on that in the Final 4 Value and Champ Value sections).
You could make a worse upset pick than UAB, Yale, or Morehead State, but unless you’re in a pool with hundreds (plural) I wouldn’t consider it. There are much better value picks elsewhere. For my money, a second round BYU upset would be where I went if I wanted to be creative.
There’s a 1/5 chance that UConn - who most everyone will have in the Final 4 - gets upset by the winner of Florida Atlantic vs Northwestern! That’s why it’s Madness.
Best value pick: BYU
Fun Facts:
Auburn has the 2nd best “opponent FG%” in the NCAA
BYU is 2nd in 3-point attempts per game, but 131st in 3-point percentage.
West Region, Round 1
North Carolina is one of the weakest #1 seeds in awhile, but it’s not really their fault, there aren’t many clear favorites this year. They’ll only be 3-5 point favorites against the winner of Michigan St. & Mississippi St, and they’d be probably be underdogs against Arizona and Alabama.
New Mexico in a mild 11 over 6 upset (even though they’re technically favored) is the best pick from this region.
Michigan St. has a lot of name value working for them. While Mississippi St. is a slight underdog, that’s a decent “upset” pick for a pool of any size. Remember to read the “summary” section at the end for your pool size’s recommended number of upsets.
Best value pick: New Mexico
Fun Facts:
Koby Brea is a name you probably haven’t heard, but might soon. He’s a 6’6 guard that plays for Dayton, and led the NCAA in 3-point percentage this year (49%). If not for likely facing Arizona in the 2nd round, they would be one of the best sleeper picks in the Tournament - and still might be.
I am SO HYPED that Alabama and Charleston play each other in Round 1. Alabama averages 90 points per game, Charleston 80 points per game, and that’s a pretty good idea of what the final score might be: high scoring. Both teams average 30 3-point attempts per game.
South Region, Round 1
Since the beginning of the “play-in” games for non-16 seeds, for some reason, those teams are always undervalued. This year is no different. Boise State/Colorado in a minor upset over Florida is one of the best values for your bracket.
Houston - not Connecticut - is my favorite to win this year (though I’d happily take the field if you’d like them both). The more interesting team out of the South is Kentucky. On paper, they should be contenders. But they’d only be slight favorites in a second-round matchup with Texas Tech or NC State, and underdogs to Marquette, Duke, and Houston. Because of their makeup, I think UK has the most volatile projection in the Tournament - neither a second round exit or a Championship run would surprise me.
Best value pick: BSU/Colorado
Fun Facts:
UK has the 2nd most efficient offense of any team in the tournament (2nd only to Creighton) and that’s largely driven by being 3rd in fastbreak points, and 1st in 3-point percentage. But their performance in the SEC Tournament showed: though they can beat anyone, their inconsistent defense means they can be upset, too.
Houston holds opponents to the fewest points per game in all of the NCAA.
Midwest Region, Round 1
Texas is unusually strong for a 7 seed, so the usual value selection the “play-in” 10 seed isn’t quite as strong - though still there. This is a very unlucky draw for McNeese St, who is a very interesting “Cinderella” team, but has to face juggernaut Gonzaga in Round 1.
In the other regions, I’m pretty comfortable saying that one of the top 4 teams (in order of probability as I listed them, not by their seed) will come from it victorious. In the Midwest - not so much. Any of the top 6 would not surprise me here. That being said, Samford over Kansas would be my top “upset” pick if I were in a very large pool.
Best value pick: UVA/CSU, OR McNeese, OR Samford. Perhaps, AND?
Fun Facts: Creighton is the most efficient offensive team in the tournament, Samford is 3rd, Gonzaga is 4th, Purdue is 8th, McNeese is 9th.
Final 4 Picks, “Left Side”
On the left side of your bracket, the East and West regions, most brackets will have Connecticut reaching the Final 4. While I think it’s more likely than not they don’t make the Final 4 (about 39% to make it) since many brackets will have them there, you have a tough choice.
If you don’t want to pick any/many early and mid-round upsets (e.g. fewer than 5) you can have fun here, though I’d stay in the top 10.
If you’re already at or near 10 early and mid-round upsets, stick to the top 7 choices for your Final 4 picks.
Only in huge pools (1000+) should you consider Clemson, New Mexico, or Nevada even to the Elite 8.
Cinderella Time: You’d have to really twist my arm to get me to put it in a bracket that had any stakes - but if I’m forced to pick a “Cinderella” give me Nevada, Dayton, or New Mexico.
Final 4 Picks, “Right Side”
While Kentucky is among my favorite picks, due to their name recognition and fandom, they’re also overpicked. Most brackets of any size should have Houston coming from the South, with Duke and Marquette as options following the same “early-mid round upsets” guidelines from the Left Side.
Do whatever the hell you want with the Midwest, it’s chaos.
Cinderella Time: Anyone up for the winner of the Boise State/Colorado play-in to make Final 4? How about TCU? Neither are good picks for small, medium, or even large bracket pools - but for huge ones, they’re good options to make an Elite 8 run if you are making safer picks elsewhere.
Texas Tech gets an Honorable Mention here, because although they’re a 6-seed, it doesn’t look like many are picking them.
Championship Picks
Houston is the first team I can remember who I had rated as the favorite (though slight) that was also the best value in most pools. The betting favorite, Connecticut, is overpicked.
That’s good news if you’re trying to win a bracket pool. Pick Houston or Arizona to win, have Connecticut losing in the Elite 8, Final 4, or Championship game, and you’ll be in good shape.
That doesn’t mean Connecticut (or whoever you don’t pick) can’t win, it means for whatever size pool you’re in, those picks will probably improve your odds.
In bracket pools of any size, you have to pick the Champion to win. In that sense, you’re not playing against everyone, only the people that pick the same Champion as you!
If you’re set on picking Connecticut to win (it’s a fine pick) mix in a few minor upsets in late rounds - Creighton, Tennessee, or Duke.
Summary & “How to Read”:
10 is the magic number.
If your bracket pool is 10-100 people, make choices below totaling 10 “upset points” and choose favorites for the rest. No fewer than 8 “upset points” and no more than 12.
If your bracket pool is 100-1000 people, make choices below totaling 15 “upset points” and choose favorites for the rest. No fewer than 10 “upset points” and no more than 20.
For pools of 1000+, make choices totaling 20 +/- 5 “upset points” and choose favorites for the rest.
Final 4 and Championship selections can both add to and reduce your “upset points” even if they’re not technically upsets.
My recommended teams to possibly choose are listed by name.
Round 1 “Upset Points”
East
+1 upset points if you choose:
Drake
+2 upset points if you choose:
UAB
+3 upset points if you choose:
Morehead St.
+8 upset points if you choose:
South Dakota St
West
+1 upset points if you choose:
New Mexico
Mississippi St.
Nevada
+2 upset points if you choose:
Grand Canyon
+3 upset points if you choose:
Charleston
Colgate
+10 upset points if you choose:
Howard/Wagner
South
+1 upset points if you choose:
BSU/Colorado
Texas A&M
+3 upset points if you choose:
Vermont
Oakland
James Madison
+6 upset points if you choose:
Western Kentucky
Midwest
-1 upset points if you choose:
TCU
+1 upset points if you choose:
Oregon
+2 upset points if you choose:
Utah St.
McNeese
UVA/CSU
Samford
+3 upset points if you choose:
Akron
+10 upset points if you choose:
MTST/GRAM
Middle Round “Upset Points”
+3 upset points if you eliminate a #1 seed before the Elite 8
+2 upset points if you eliminate a #2 seed before the Sweet 16
+1 upset points for eliminating any lower seeded team, not including above
(Left Side) Final 4 “Upset Points”
For choosing the following teams to make the Final 4
+0 upset points if you choose:
Auburn
Connecticut
+1 upset points if you choose:
Arizona
Alabama
Iowa St
North Carolina
+2 upset points if you choose:
Illinois
Baylor
St. Mary’s
+5 upset points if you choose:
Michigan St.
Nevada
Mississippi St.
New Mexico
(Right Side) Final 4 “Upset Points”
For choosing the following teams to make the Final 4:
-1 upset points if you choose:
Houston
0 upset points if you choose:
Tennessee
Duke
+1 upset points if you choose:
Gonzaga
Texas
Creighton
Purdue
+2 upset points if you choose:
Marquette
Texas Tech
Kansas
+3 upset points if you choose:
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Florida
TCU
BSU/COLO
Champion “Upset Points”
+0 upset points if you choose:
Houston
+1 upset points if you choose:
Connecticut
Arizona
Purdue
Alabama
+2 upset points if you choose:
Auburn
Tennessee
Baylor
Creighton
Marquette
+3 upset points if you choose:
Iowa St.
North Carolina
Kentucky
Duke
Illinois
Kansas
Gonzaga
+4 upset points if you choose:
Texas Tech
St. Mary’s
Texas
I recommend choosing your champion first, and working around your Final Four picks. Don’t forget to add upset points for “mid round” upsets too.
Good luck!
Carl’s office bracket:
Houston as champion (-1 upset point)
Tennessee in Final Four (+1 upset point)
Arizona in Final Four (+1 upset point)
UConn in Final Four (+0 upset points)
Drake in R1 (+1 upset point)
New Mexico in R1 (+1 upset point)
Nevada in R1 (+1 upset point)
BSU/Colorado in R1 (+1 upset point)
TCU in R1 (-1 upset point)
BYU in R2 (+1 upset point)
Gonzaga in R2 (+1 upset point)
Alabama in R3 (+3 upset points)
Kentucky in R3 (+1 upset point)