My Sports Betting Update
My Sports Betting Update
Lots of Touchdowns & 23% ROI
I promised this Substack would highlight both sports and political data. While the political stuff is why most of you follow me, I wouldn’t be any good at it if not for cutting my teeth in sports data.
I don’t plan on sports betting (or other sports data) stuff to be very common on here (especially with election season around the corner) but if you really want to see more of it, leave a comment.
Otherwise, follow me on Threads, X, or whatever other social media you can find.
Here is a disclaimer that is not required but one I am passionate about:
Sports betting can, and should, be primarily for entertainment and fun. If you think you have a problem, or it’s not fun, there’s no shame in seeking help.
I do not make a living from betting sports. Almost no one does, or can do so (and many who claim to are lying). An enormous number of people who claim to be great at sports betting also want you to pay them for picks; don’t think about the irony too much.
My posts have been weekly (during the NFL season since 2020) and public for a simple reason: there’s no reason to believe someone does well if they can’t back it up.
I do not and will not aggressively seek followers in that arena, though I have a few, it’s honestly just the kind of fun challenge that interests me.
So, what is it I bet, and why?
Most bettors like to bet point spreads and over/unders. I do, too, but I don’t find much of an edge there.
I bet certain players to score touchdowns.
Scoring a touchdown in football is an inherently rare event: most teams average just 2-3 per game. Picking the player(s) who will score a touchdown is even harder.
But in football, there’s a lot of data you can get your hands on; some of that data is relevant, some of it isn’t. There are also a lot of unknowns.
Especially important: historical performance is not always predictive of future performance.
Put it all together: figuring out what data matters and what doesn’t - and finding better ways to model “unknowns” and you’ll see the overlap between my interest in sports betting (may as well call it sports forecasting) and political forecasting.
It all started in 2020…
More specifically, week 4 of 2020. I had done so well in weeks 1-3, I told some friends, and their response was some variant of “no fu*kin way” so I started to post.
And…it was remarkable. Not only did I do really well (61% ROI over 12 weeks, not bad) I had a very unsustainable run of weeks that were almost all profitable.
I’ll direct your attention to the win-loss record. 38 wins and 290 losses, that’s not a typo. I won barely more than 11% of my bets but they proved extremely profitable.
The reason: I was betting longshots.
This approach is not for the faint of heart. By the nature of betting longshots, I expected long periods of lots of losses, with enough big wins to stay competitive.
2020 was an outlier. An unsustainable run of (well-timed) wins that just kept coming. I knew it was unsustainable, and warned my influx of followers the same.
2021 was much more standard for what I expected. Huge swings, with lots of time in the red, with enough big wins to stay profitable.
There’s no explanation for it other than pure chance - there isn’t any correlation between guys scoring touchdowns in different games - but it’s wild how many came at the same time. 6 of my 28 wins in 2021 came in one week. It was a challenge because there were very few places who offered odds, meaning fewer chances to find an edge.
2022 was a weird one. More oddsmakers became available which is great, but they started doing weird things with lines - such that the best odds were available literally seconds after kickoff. Betting a player before the game was often the difference between getting 10/1 odds vs 15/1 odds, again, just 2 seconds after the game started.
It became labor intensive but I endured, and the outcome was very similar to 2021, with a few very nice playoff wins on top of it.
Then came 2023. Sports Betting was legalized in my home state of Ohio (no more driving across the Indiana border to bet) and there were many more places to bet - which means better chance at finding good odds.
My wagers got a little more aggressive than years past, but still (as I preach) well within my comfort level. And that’s a good thing. Because…
Through week 4, things were kind of normal. Big swings. Then weeks 4-6 were a whole lot of nothing. You can see the three small upticks from the small wins in those two weeks. Ouch.
So, upswing time, right?
The swings, baby
Week 7 came with one enormous win: Gardner Minshew (a Quarterback) scored 2 TDs (running, not passing) which paid out at 150-1 odds (not to mention his scoring one TD paid out 8-1, and I had 2 units on it!)
My standard bet size (and the standard bet size for any bettor) is “1 unit.”
A unit can be whatever you want it to be - and as I remind folks, it should be an amount you can afford to lose (and for me, an amount I can afford to lose in a high volume). There’s a reason you can’t make a living doing this - the amount of money you’d need to stomach the swings, you may as well be retired.
That being said, not all bets are the same unit size - if you think a bet has a larger edge, you should probably, within reason, bet more. My “units” range from 0.5 to 5.
I’ll have a breakdown of how I fared on all of these wagers a little later.
But to this point in the season, I have made 473 wagers, wagered 582 units, and I’m doing my dance with Mrs. Breakeven. Not a dance I enjoy, but not one to complain about either.
“Mrs. Breakeven is like a 7, she’s fun to hang with, but will always leave your balls blue.”
Anyways.
Weeks 8-12 kept the dance going, and in Week 13, finally made some headway with Mrs. Breakeven’s hotter, single friend.
The largest contributor to that breakthrough? Another seemingly random QB with 2 rushing TDs: Sam Howell.
There’s kind of a theme to these bets (and a method to the madness) which I’ll also breakdown at the end.
Justin Herbert 2TDs, Gardner Minshew 2TDs, Sam Howell 2TDs seem to be doing some heavy lifting here. While their huge contributions certainly are the most striking and obvious, the single-TD guys are doing plenty, too.
To this point in the season, through Week 13, I’ve wagered 1089 units on 852 wagers, with 49 wins.
That is, a record of 49-803 (5.75%). And, for the first time all season, profitable.
You may have noticed that in past years, my win percentage was much larger (usually over 10%).
What I found was, before 2023, I was wasting a lot of money (neither profitable nor unprofitable) on a lot of guys who weren’t exactly longshots. Basically, I was tying up my limited amount of money on guys who, even if they scored, wouldn’t pay out as much.
I thought I had a slightly larger “edge” on longshots (players whose odds were in the neighborhood of +800 or longer) , especially certain types of players who were/are consistently underpriced, so I raised my threshold for betting players whose odds were shorter, which freed up more to make more and larger bets on who I believed were undervalued longshots.
Through the first few weeks, that risk-reward approach proved more “risk.”
And it finally started to pay off. I broke the y-axis (in the good way).
As you may imagine, this run felt really good! My few followers for this stuff who typically go a little quiet during the bad times (understandably) were pretty happy after weeks 15 and 16 which featured lots of big wins - and you’ll notice - not even any 2TD wins.
(A 2nd Jordan Love TD in week 16 might’ve changed my tune about the whole “make a living doing this” thing, I had a large wager on it)
To make things especially fun, while Week 16 had already been nice, Sunday Night Football featured one of my favorite bets of the year (3 units on Lucas Krull at +2090) and he had already scored.
So I decided to call my shot.
Brandon Johnson, a 2 unit bet at 28-1, also scored.
What a week.
The heater continues
Week 17 started off as strong as possible. Charlie Kolar and Patrick Ricard scored TDs for the Ravens, and QB Bailey Zappe scored as a huge (I thought inexplicable) +2460 longshot for the Patriots.
For whatever reason, the wins come in bunches. The y-axis is so messed up that these 100 unit moves don’t look large anymore.
A big 4-unit win on Jordan Love at +1400 to end Week 17, and Week 18 continued the remarkable rungood.
Jonnu Smith and AT Perry, 3 and 4 unit bets receiving +1080 and +1150 odds respectively, both scored in the same game.
AT Perry actually scored a second TD in that game, which I also bet (and forgot to post) so that isn’t included on the chart.
On that note...
Timestamps > Tickets.
I have like 19 followers for sports betting. I don’t do this for clout, it’s just a hobby that I hope to make a little money with. I’ve made money in this niche TD market several years running. I may or may not be profitable in the future.
By the nature of gambling, and I suppose social media in general, a following favors people who are good at hype. I’m not good at hype, I’m just good.
This article is probably the first thing I’ve written sports-betting related that required me to do much work other than what I already do (don’t you love the charts?)
The reason timestamps > tickets is for all you know I could just be betting a bunch of crazy longshots and posting the winning tickets. I know a few folks with an enormous following thanks to this, because a $10,000 win looks better if you don’t also post all of your losses.
To each their own.
If I don’t post it before kickoff, I don’t count it.
Whether I’ve made $10 or $10,000,000 from this doesn’t really matter, either. Unless you’re the IRS.
Being up 400 units at $1/unit is more impressive than being up 1 unit at $1,000,000/unit…even if one pays better.
So what’s in the sauce?
0.5 unit bets were all extreme longshots (1st touchdowns, 2 touchdowns, mostly). The only win was Herbert’s 2TD game.
It happens that two of my big 2TD wins (Howell & Minshew) were 1 unit bets, which helped that ROI, but there were plenty of others in there.
3 and 4 unit bets were where I did damage. Having better returns on higher confidence bets is good!
You might have noticed, football fan, that a ton of my notable wins were Quarterbacks. That’s not by accident.
Certain Quarterbacks are wildly, consistently underpriced
One of the hardest variables to forecast when betting touchdowns, especially longshots, is usage. Will the player be on the field often, and if so, how (and when) will they be used?
Quarterbacks are…always on the field. Most quarterbacks - those who don’t run often - are considered longshots to score touchdowns. But just because a play isn’t designed for them to run, doesn’t mean they won’t. Quarterbacks willing and able to scramble (especially near the end zone) are great bets.
Blindly betting QBs to score TDs isn’t the best strategy, but it would fare much better than you think.
There are a class of QBs who are good at running but don’t do it often who create a risk-reward that has resulted in a big reward.
Here are the QBs I bet most often, the number of times I bet them, and number of wins:
Goff (8 bets, 1 win)
Young (14 bets, 0 wins)
Burrow (7 bets, 0 wins)
Mayfield (9, 0 wins)
Howell (15 bets, 4 wins, one 2TD win)
Herbert (9 bets, 1 win, one 2TD win)
Love (11 bets, 2 wins)
Minshew (12 bets, 1 win, one 2TD win)
Ridder (6 bets, 2 wins)
Pickett (7 bets, 1 win)
Z Wilson (7 bets, 1 win)
Tua (12 bets, 0 wins)
G Smith (8 bets, 1 win)
Stroud (8 bets, 1 win)
Purdy (10 bets, 1 win)
Though I had 273 QB bets (and this only accounts for about half of that total), the count of “QB bets” also include lots of 2TD bets and some 1st TD bets. There were some a la jeu options (thanks, Bailey Zappe) that were on a game-by-game basis, that followed the same reasoning: odds vs. scoring opportunities vs. scramble probability.
Here’s a breakdown of all the positions:
With TD bets, it seems like I’ve found a few edges that pay…kind of.
QBs were, by far, the best category. Others were a little hit-and-miss.
Fullbacks featured the longtime undervalued Kyle Juszczyk (5 bets, 0 wins), plus guys I bet who actually scored when I bet them: Patrick Ricard (14 bets, 1 win) and Andrew Beck (4 bets, 1 win).
The fullback math is similar to the 2nd/3rd tight end math: they’re longshots because they don’t play much, and even when they play, they rarely get the ball.
Kyle Juszczyk is my favorite fullback for TD bets because he’s the only fullback in the league regularly used in both receiving and blocking roles.
These players can be undervalued because of where they’re primarily used on the field: near the end zone.
Surprising to me: negative ROI for tight ends. 2nd and 3rd tight ends, in my opinion, probably have the biggest edge of any position other than QBs. This follows if I include my numbers from previous years, just a little unlucky this year.
It’s not too surprising that this number could be variable, because usage of tight ends is the hardest variable to predict, especially 2nd and 3rd tight ends.
And not all tight ends are created equal.
I separate my analysis into my “stretch” tight ends (guys who are capable of scoring long touchdowns, often used for explosive plays) and “blocking” tight ends (typically used near the goal line).
My favorite stretch tight end of all time (likely because he paid well) was Dan Arnold. The name is unassuming, he wasn’t used often, but he played for a team that threw the ball a lot (the Cardinals) and they used him appropriately as a weapon. He might have only been on the field for 10 plays/game, but they would try to throw him the ball deep down the field at least a few of those. And one game, he had two catches for two touchdowns - perfect.
This year’s Dan Arnold was Lucas Krull. The Broncos used him sparingly, but almost always as a deep target, which made him very appealing.
Krull wasn’t active until later in the season, I bet him 4 times with 1 win. He was receiving odds north of 20-1! Instead of throwing money at him to score 2 TDs in the +25000 range (which I thought was a fine bet) I just loaded up on the 1TD bet.
I only bet him 4 times, but for a total of 16 units.
Here were my most often bet tight ends, and number of wins:
Bellinger (12 bets, 0 wins)
Tonyan (11 bets, 0 wins)
Kieft (10 bets, 1 win)
Manhertz (10 bets, 0 wins)
Julian Hill (9 bets, 0 wins)
Stoll (9 bets, 0 wins)
Trautman (9 bets, 1 win)
Mundt (9 bets, 1 win)
Mitchell (8 bets, 0 wins)
Deguara (8 bets, 0 wins)
J Smith (8 bets, 2 wins)
Alie-Cox (7 bets, 2 wins)
Hopkins (7 bets, 0 wins)
Wesco (7 bets, 0 wins)
Strange (7 bets, 0 wins)
Farrell (7 bets, 0 wins)
Wright (6 bets, 1 win)
Woerner (6 bets, 0 wins)
Kolar (5 bets, 1 win)
Gray (5 bets, 1 win)
Mcbride (5 bets, 0 wins)
Bryant (4 bets, 2 wins)
Graham (4 bets, 2 wins)
Krull (4 bets, 1 win)
Running Backs: oof
There are two ways to make money betting longshot running backs:
Predict their usage before it happens
Identify guys who can “vulture” TDs near the goal line
This year, I did an amazing job doing neither. At least, in terms of the results.
Running backs have been historically my worst category in terms of ROI, but I haven’t decided if they’re worth abandoning yet.
If I look at the process, I think I did fine.
In week 2, his first week active, I identified Achane as a high-upside play. I even had a pretty large (one unit) wager on his 2TD line at 100-1 odds.
He did not score that week.
Then, in week 3, his line corrected closer to what I thought it should be (+350) and I didn’t bet it.
Achane promptly ran for over 200 yards and 2 touchdowns…and caught 2 more.
Then he ran for 2 touchdowns again the following week.
Again, it’s really hard to be results-oriented betting longshots, but saying “I really like this guy that no one has heard of (yet) to score 2TDs at 100-1 odds” and him achieving that feat two consecutive weeks is a good sign!
That’s not to say I didn’t have misses in the other direction, though.
Z White (12 bets, 0 wins)
Bigsby (8 bets, 0 wins)
Chandler (8 bets, 1 win)
Rivers (6 bets, 0 wins)
The challenge I’ve hit with RBs is that usage in a given game is usually clearly defined, and that if you find an edge (e.g. Achane +700/+10000) that edge is gone in one game.
With QBs, TEs, and even WRs, I’ve found that’s not as often the case.
WRs: my new 2023 approach
I had always separated tight ends into classes: “stretch Arnold” types, and “blocking” types - with some room in between.
But for whatever reason, I had never considered it necessary to separate my valuation of WRs for TD probability.
I think doing so makes a ton of sense and has paid off.
Obviously, for most teams, their top 2-3 receivers are basically set. But some teams - more, in 2022 and 23 - have started using more aggressive rotations (e.g. WR4 and WR5 on depth charts see the field more).
The reason isn’t necessarily strictly because they’re “better” it’s because certain WRs have different skill sets.
Enter: “gadget” receivers, and “deep threat” receivers.
Naturally, elite Tight Ends like Kelce and Kittle might be classified as “stretch” Tight Ends - but it’s pretty unnecessary given their short odds are hard to beat long term imo.
The players who get classifications are the longshots.
Likewise, Jamarr Chase and Tyreek Hill are obviously deep threats (with Hill being used in a lot of gadget scenarios too) but the same stipulation as with Tight Ends. I only really care about the longshots.
Now, where things get interesting:
A huge portion of my “edge” (if it exists) in betting TDs has come from short-yardage scenarios.
The math (while it varies non-negligibly by team) is basically:
Probability of TD coming in Red Zone (inside 20 yard line) ~75%
But this is misleading because
Probablility of TD coming inside 10 yard line ~73%
(Teams seldom score from 10-20 yards out)
And even inside the 10, the distribution is not equal.
Probability of TD coming from inside 5 yard line ~35%
Probability of TD coming from inside the 2 yard line ~20%
Add it all up, these numbers favor players who are on the field close to the goal line.
For years, I favored QBs, FB/TEs, and backup RBs (preferably “short yardage” types) for that reason.
And I still will.
Consider:
Adam Trautman had more Red Zone Targets (13) and TD catches (3) than teammate Jerry Jeudy (10 RZ targets, 2 TDs) despite, get this:
Trautman was only targeted 35 times overall (37% RZ) to Jeudy’s 87 targets (11.5% RZ)
All this, and Trautman was regularly paying better than +600 (sometimes over +1000) and Jeudy was hard to find better than +300, ever.
This story follows across many teams, and supports my theory: the inefficiency in TD odds are based largely on player usage rates, which correlates (but not always well) with TD rates.
Not all usage is equal, in terms of TD probability.
But the hard part: observing RZ usage is not the same as predicting it. It’s an imprecise job by nature, but it’s going pretty well overall.
My favorite of these “usage vs TD%” examples, is “if Jimmy Graham is on a roster, he’s not 10/1 to score a TD.”
Graham had 7 targets (71.4% RZ lol) 6 catches, and 4 TDs in 2023.
But by disregarding those ~25% of TDs that come outside the red zone, I was missing out on some value.
I define “deep threat” WRs as a WR who teams tend throw the ball deep to.
I define “gadget player” as WRs who teams try to get the ball to in creative ways, other than traditional routes (like handoffs, screens, etc.)
And there’s some overlap. Not coincidentally, a lot of those guys are high on my “frequently bet” list.
T Scott (10 bets, 0 wins)
Thompkins (9 bets, 1 win)
S Miller (7 bets, 2 wins)
Skowronek (7 bets, 1 win)
Harty (7 bets, 1 win)
Julio Jones* (6 bets, 1 win)
D Davis (6 bets, 0 wins)
Kirkwood (6 bets, 1 win)
*This is a Red Zone WR! This classification is basically for tall WRs who are used more near the goal line (Mack Hollins, AT Perry, Lil’Jordan Humphrey). Julio, being a household name, didn’t really get a classification until I saw he was regularly getting odds better than 10-1, and his signing with the Eagles had a lot of promise for his opportunities.
There are also lots of guys who fit into these categories on a case-by-case basis that I bet fewer times, basically just depending on how long their odds are. Often, a guy’s odds can fluctuate from +1200 to +2200 week-to-week even under very similar conditions.
A few of my favorites (irrespective of outcomes) were:
C Austin (4 bets, 1 win)
C Wilson (4 bets, 0 wins)
C Moore (4 bets, 0 wins)
Smith-Marsette (3 bets, 1 win)
Goodwin (3 bets, 0 wins)
Speaking of “Achane-esque” finds, I bet Puca Nacua at +600 in Week 1 (which didn’t pay off) and Rashee Rice at +575 (which did). And their lines promptly corrected and I never bet them again.
Despite an absolutely brutal run there in the middle, the 2023 season was my best ROI of the 4 years I’ve done this publicly.
And I’m still posting (and doing well) in the playoffs!
All in all, my TD betting record for the 2023 regular season for each bet type was:
