Poll Data Series Part 5
The poll averages are here
It’s been 3 weeks since the poll data series started, and the special election in Mintucky will take place in just over a week.
New here? That’s okay, it’s just getting good. Take 5 minutes to watch Part 1 to see what this whole thing is about.
Over the past 3 weeks we’ve been introduced to 5 pollsters:
Shovel
Twovases
Bevtub Polling
Box
Bowl Poll Co.
These pollsters, like pollsters in people elections, might have slightly different methodology with the same overall goal: figure out the proportion of decided voters from the population.
Special emphasis on decided voters.
Most polls, and poll averages, just kind of pretend undecided voters don’t exist. As statistically literate readers of poll data, you know better than to ignore undecideds by just looking at the margin.
What do polls tell us about undecided voters? Approximately how many there are.
What do polls tell us about how undecided voters will eventually vote? Nothing.
Report undecideds. Count them properly. Account for them in your forecasts. Even though Nate Silver doesn't understand this, it's Poll Data 101. Maybe 201. You tested into it, congrats.
Without further ranting, here are the poll averages to date. Note there will be lots more polls leading up to the election, just like in people elections.
Share your forecasts! Bonus points for range of outcomes probabilities.
