Short post, please read

What's next (and coming soon)

It's going to be an interesting few weeks.

As my work is more widely read, and can no longer simply be hidden/blocked from mentions, I will have some more opportunities to speak to the media, etc. and others will be asked to comment on it.

My sources (teehee) tell me some things are circulating within some important circles, good and bad. So I need to prepare for some things. (Joke’s on them, I've been preparing since before they knew who I was)

A lot of you have and will disagree with my tone when I argue with experts and people who are otherwise considered highly qualified.

It's okay. I understand it. I don't expect your undying support nor do I want a cultish following. I hope you follow me because I do good work, not because I'm funny, nice, or extremely attractive. All of which I definitely am, with 95% confidence.

But remember: I've been doing this for 8 years. What you see in public is a fraction of a fraction of what went on behind the scenes for the ~6 years prior.

Within the relevant circles, I was ignored (at best) and defamed (at worst).

Despite the fact that I was right. I played by the rules, kissed the right rings, but it didn't matter. It turns out, there's no nice way to tell someone they're wrong.

But prior to 4 years ago, I wasn't even doing *that* - I was just saying "hey, is there something here?"

The tone I take now isn't the tone I've always taken.

The tone I take now is A RESULT of what has transpired over the past 8 years.

My work has gone from

"I think I'm on to something"

To

"I know I'm on to something"

To

"F*ck you guys, I'll just figure it out myself"

It was not easy for me, an "outsider," to sit back and watch how poorly things are done and explained (not just as a scientific field, but how they misinform the public) ….

…And sit around waiting for someone else to - maybe - do what I've tried to do, and fix it.

For ~6 yrs before considering writing a book, I contacted many experts, to try and hand off my work.

By the time I reached the "I know I'm on to something" stage, I expected it would be at least considered, if not well received.

But it became highly vitriolic.

One name you might know responded asking for my credentials etc.

I responded (maybe they wanted to hire me?) and asked if they had read my work. It was only like 20 pages

They belittled my lack of qualifications and didn't address it.

There wasn't a single "tipping point" in Carl becoming an ahole when it comes to this field...but at a certain point, I think I just nodded my head and decided I was on my own.

That sign won't stop me because I can't read.

As you may notice, depending on how long you've followed me, if you read pretty much any post besides this one, you can tell I have something of a passion for educating people (and despise misinformation). I like to teach because I like to learn.

Despite my limited reach and ability, I do have something to offer.

And because I'm not just teaching, but correcting so many deeply held (and still-pushed) misconceptions, it's a bigger task than it should be.

As I started compiling the contents of what would become a book (then a scatterbrained 120 pages) I was recommended by someone affiliated with CRC Press or Routledge to propose it as a book

In my first meetings, they mentioned the possibility of having it as part of their "statistical literacy" series

That created a tidal wave of ideas

No longer am I just trying to convince experts of something (that is objectively correct but they don't understand) but now trying to teach people the "why"

With that, I ended up creating more value than I had ever considered possible. My audience was no longer a small group of people set in their ways because “it's always been done this way” but a wider population of people who, maybe, I could get through to.

But that required me to overcome some assumptions I was making; most of all, that seemingly simple concepts were "understood" (or even that I understood them). I quickly realized how poorly understood they were. What most people (including the field’s experts) think of as one-step calculation is more like a four-step one.

And those intermediate steps are more complicated than anyone has realized.

*Deep breath*

So, on the note of analyzing polls properly - not lying and saying

"Polls say this person is up by this much"

Or worse

"Polls were OFF by this much, see? We subtracted numbers!"

I'm the first one through the glass. The glass hurts.

I don't expect sympathy here. I'm the dumbass who ran through the glass.

But I'm only the first through the glass because no one with the power to do so was kind enough to open a door. Or even a damn window.

So now that the glass has mostly been removed, I'm not going to pretend I didn't have to run through it to get here, or forget who laughed while I did.

The above, from today, is one of many hedges I will not accept, now that I forced them to open the door.

He published this one year ago, in his book.

So which is it? Margins or vote shares?

There's no other possibility reading the quote from his book than that he thinks a poll, if accurate, should predict the margin of the election.

He's not alone.

Opening the door now, and pretending you haven't spent the past several years barricading it shut and the past several decades misinforming people isn't going to cut it.

I will not stop until full retractions are issued and the public is apologized to.

Even that won't heal the damage but it will do a lot more than gaslighting people like they do when it comes to their forecasts.

Or the route I think they'll go (a forecast, of sorts) contradicting their work from past years and pretend they've “always said it” or “been shouting it for years.”

We're reaching another inflection point in which the methods have catastrophically failed, will eventually be unanimously accepted that they have and did, but no one will be held accountable. And that's not going to fly for whatever I have to say matters.

So yeah, I'm very short, mean, even contemptuous with a lot of these people. But it's not without reason.

The biggest reason is that they have chosen to misinform, and once that becomes clear to everyone, they will try and duck accountability, and pretend they did nothing wrong. I've seen it before.

My long game is a little more complicated.

Once I realized someone would need to run through the glass to get anything done, I didn't expect to simply run through the glass, present my work, and be welcomed to the party. For my work to have any staying power, it has to be more than just me using it or building on it. So, my convoluted theory goes (brilliance or madness, who can say?) if I am enough of a lightning rod of an ahole to take all of the personal attacks, and whatever else comes with trying to fix things, then some other, unassuming analysts (who totally don't know me from social media, just read my book or something) can walk through the door and be better-received.

Time will tell.

Anyways

Senate & Presidential Updates coming soon

House Forecast

Uruguay Election Forecast

Coming soon

Thanks