A lot of great points. I keep seeing similarities with economics commentary - most of the time what sounds 'sophisticated' is just masking wild assumptions about how things work (tariffs/inflation)
It's similar with the difference you mention around statistics and probability.
When it comes to predictive models - whether sports or politics - the ability to distinguish what data matters and what doesn't (and how much) is the difference between the best model in the world and a useless one.
In most cases, "what happened last time/game/season" is the most basic model. And it's not the worst. But it does have a ton of assumptions - such that it is NOT always the best model. Sometimes it's not even the best starting point.
Not dug deep into any economic models but I suspect variable change and various assumptions also applies in that field.
A lot of great points. I keep seeing similarities with economics commentary - most of the time what sounds 'sophisticated' is just masking wild assumptions about how things work (tariffs/inflation)
It's similar with the difference you mention around statistics and probability.
When it comes to predictive models - whether sports or politics - the ability to distinguish what data matters and what doesn't (and how much) is the difference between the best model in the world and a useless one.
In most cases, "what happened last time/game/season" is the most basic model. And it's not the worst. But it does have a ton of assumptions - such that it is NOT always the best model. Sometimes it's not even the best starting point.
Not dug deep into any economic models but I suspect variable change and various assumptions also applies in that field.