If you haven't already read it, I think you might dig the book Fluke by Brian Klaas. In it, he discuses a little of the history of probability science.
You've attached only screenshots of Silver's statements for 2012 and 2023. Can you provide links instead? I'm asking because while it's obvious that he's talking about predictions at the *state* level in the 2012 screenshot, it's not obvious if the 2023 one refers to state or national level. If it refers to the *national* level, then it makes perfect sense, as the results of the US presidential elections are not that closely correlated with national polls due to the Electoral College.
The link to the incorrect margin of error is dead, and I'm enough of a nerd that I wanted to read it!
Me too!
Me threeeeeeeeeee!!!!
Fixed fixed fixed sorry about that and thanks for the heads up
Did you read it 👀
Thoughts?
If you haven't already read it, I think you might dig the book Fluke by Brian Klaas. In it, he discuses a little of the history of probability science.
Yeah, but who’s gonna win?
Believe Carls model has Kamala substantially higher than most pollsters right now. Around 60% I think
You've attached only screenshots of Silver's statements for 2012 and 2023. Can you provide links instead? I'm asking because while it's obvious that he's talking about predictions at the *state* level in the 2012 screenshot, it's not obvious if the 2023 one refers to state or national level. If it refers to the *national* level, then it makes perfect sense, as the results of the US presidential elections are not that closely correlated with national polls due to the Electoral College.
Thoughts?
"If it refers to the *national* level, then it makes perfect sense"
And what if they refer to poll averages at the state level?
It's state level
Updated article with links, also given below
2012: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/
2023 chart I referenced: "presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections since 1998, by how close the poll showed the race"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/