Updated Senate and Presidential House Comparison

Overall and win probability

Previous Presidential Forecast here

Previous Senate Forecast here

It's crunch time.

On the Presidential level, not much has changed. On one hand, you would think assassination attempts would move things…but they didn't. That lends a lot of support to the ceiling thing.

On the other hand, Harris hasn't pushed comfortably over 49 in her poll averages, which means, yes, either candidate could win.

But close does not equal tossup.

Harris remains favored in the blue wall states. If she wins the blue wall states, then she (almost certainly) wins the election.

The math isn't quite that simple, but it's very close.

And Harris can still win without one or two of the blue wall states, though a crack in the blue wall would make her a medium underdog, relying heavily on North Carolina and/or Georgia.

But given that North Carolina will probably be called first, we probably won't know how badly she needs it until much later.

(If she wins North Carolina, she's highly likely to win the Presidency, at least 90%. If she loses it, the race is a tossup, depending “by how much”)

Presidential Forecast by State

Remember, because win probabilities are correlated, does not mean that my forecast thinks the most likely outcome is that Harris wins the states where she's favored, and loses where she's not. This exact scenario (blue wall plus with Nevada, or exactly 276 Electoral Votes) barely cracks the top 5.

All 7 swing states (319 EVs), all but Arizona (308), and all but Georgia (303) remain more likely.

Most of Harris's losses come while still winning one or two of the blue wall states.

My original range of outcomes visual

The same forecast, broken down to the Betting Market range of outcomes

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As for the Senate

The Senate is less promising for Democrats.

Sherrod Brown remains barely better than a tossup, and the potential 50th seats aren't looking promising.

Nebraska remains Dem’s best longshot hope.

Texas and Florida have fallen back to the teens in terms of win probability.

Montana, even lower.

In short, a good night for Dems now looks like 49 Senate seats. Though still possible, 50 or more would require a very good night.

(Assuming Osborn caucuses with Democrats)

Comparing my forecast to FiveThirtyEight's:

While my probability for Osborn has moved from “probably an underdog” to “almost certainly an underdog” there isn't much justification for a 6% win probability in Nebraska.

The two high quality polls statewide were 50-43 and 48-46 Fischer.

“Two” isn't a sample size of polls large enough to drastically influence things, but some data is much better than no data, and that data definitely favors the Incumbent.

(For the record, FiveThirtyEight had a lower win probability for Osborn before those polls!)

Undecideds in states like Nebraska tend to favor their state's partisan lean, but it's unclear whether Osborn (and Independent) will fit that trend.

All in all, Nebraska remains favorable to Fischer, and I wouldn't argue with someone who said my 30% probability is too high, but I still think it's the most promising of an unpromising list.

The barrage of updates will continue soon.